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Factors that are affecting the supply of Manhattan properties.

Sales of New Development Condos Exploded after Covid

High sales in Manhattan during 2021 and early 2022 reduced the excess inventory of new developments. In 2020, however, property sales in New York City were exceptionally low because of Covid. The arrival of vaccines, however, helped the market recover.

Developers reduced prices, and interest rates reached record lows, which drew buyers to Manhattan apartments. At this point it seemed like everyone wanted a home in Manhattan. As a result, demand surged and condo sales, especially new developments and luxury apartments, soared.  Accordingly, New Development Manhattan Condos for sale plummeted. 

Tax Abatements Expired Making it More Expensive to Build

The end of tax abatements (421a, 421g, and J-51) has affected development. These abatements helped by lowering property taxes for developers and individual buyers. In essence, the expiration of these abatements make it more expensive to build.

Some local city council members have rejected projects offering 30% affordable housing. They wanted 50% for Project One45 and even 100% for World Trade Center 5, showing a strong demand for more affordable options.

In this environment, don’t expect builders to construct much in NYC. Until recently, there was little political support for developers. They received no incentives to build.

Things are changing now. Recently, lawmakers approved a new tax break called 485X a few months ago. Generally, while the new law will benefit most of New York NY Manhattan will see less benefits from it.

To qualify for the abatement, buildings with 11 to 99 units have the easiest rules. They only need to meet 20% affordable housing requirements (to meet equal opportunity goals). They also avoid high labor costs that apply to buildings with 100 or more units.

It appears, however, as though many developers haven't jumped on board yet. Since the development time takes so long in NYC, we don't expect to see any benefits from this abatement until 2028 at the earliest.

Rental to Condo Conversions Disappeared after 2019 NY State Decimated the Asset Class

The strict rules from the tenant protection law on August 1, 2019, hurt building owners. This law affected owners with rent-stabilized tenants.

As a result, it lowered the value of all buildings in this category. This had a substantial impact on several regional banks, prompting government intervention earlier this year. Currently, developers plan virtually no condo conversion projects, and they expect none unless the law changes.

Significant Increase in Building and Financing Costs Dampened Developer Activity

The quick increase in costs from supply chain issues because of Covid and rising financing rates are major challenges. These factors make it hard to create new development inventory. Only true ultra-luxury and super-luxury projects will have enough profit to handle substantial cost increases. Builders will not start non-luxury projects until inflation calms down unless new tax abatements are generous enough.

Significant Increases in Mortgage Interest Rates Dampened Desire to Sell

The Fed’s war on inflation has led to the fastest increase in residential mortgage rates in history. Homeowners who bought or refinanced their homes in the last few years have a special type of mortgage. This mortgage keeps them tied to their homes for a long time. They got these loans when interest rates were exceptionally low. 

Giving up your 2.5% mortgage on a two-bedroom apartment is difficult. This is especially true for a 6% mortgage on a three-bedroom apartment. This will likely contribute to future low supply and reduce mobility.

Manhattan NY Real Estate New Development Stats

Prime Manhattan Neighborhoods will Have a Shortage of New Development Condo Inventory for Years

As of August 2024, there are not many new projects or units available in prime neighborhoods. Some projects have just had their plans approved by the NY Attorney General. Some of these are ready for people to move in. Others will not be ready for 2-3 years.  Note that when I mention Pipeline below in my discussion by neighborhood, that is defined as Offering Plan submitted but not yet approved. I have included only buildings with more than 30 units. 

Out of 4,243 unsold units, five buildings account for 37% of the total inventory. These five buildings are: One Wall Street - Financial District, Waldorf - Midtown East, One Manhattan Square - Lower East Side, The Greenwich - Financial District, and Monogram - Kips Bay. Thus, not in neighborhoods that have historically attracted a large number of native New Yorkers.

Below I detail each neighborhood's new development inventory and show which properties are in the pipeline, which is  defined as Offering Plan submitted to the Attorney General but NOT approved yet.  As you will see, there are very few projects in the pipeline. 

格林威治村和西村

Currently, there are only 15 units available across 3 buildings.

The Village includes these two neighborhoods famous for historic townhomes and spacious single-family homes. It features charming streets, shops, and many dog parks, offering social spaces for dogs and outdoor areas for owners to relax and have fun.

Most Village real estate has landmark protection. Because of this, there are rarely new projects and it is usually a seller's market. Those that do get the green light, are usually on the smaller side. However, there are two projects planned that will provide much-needed housing in the neighborhood.

Pipeline (Submitted but Unapproved Plans)

80 Clarkson St (aka 570 Washington) - 113 units - this is the most interesting project in the pipeline. The Zeckendorfs are building a 34-story luxury condo. You can find it on the border of the West Village and West SoHo. The condo is next to the new Google Headquarters by the Hudson River. This will be Downtown Manhattan's  new development crown jewel. 

Reach out for first access. 

525 Sixth Avenue - 68 units spread over 13 floors and will sit at the corner of 14th Street and Sixth Avenue.

苏荷区、诺霍区和诺利塔区

These neighborhoods have available less than 100 developer units combined

Most are located at 100 Vandam, located in West SoHo, which has 63 units and the remaining are spread over

Many of these neighborhoods have a lot of co-ops, shops, and low buildings. This limits the number of new buildings that developers can construct here. When boutique buildings launch in this neighborhood, they sell out quickly. 

No projects exist in the pipeline for any of these neighborhoods.

Upper West Side & Lincoln Square

The Upper West Side has 476 unsold developer units available. The top 5 buildings, representing 81% of the unsold units are:

720 West End Ave (at W95th St) - 131 units

50 W 66th St - 69 units

96+ Broadway - 89 units

212 W 72nd St - 48 units

The Rockwell (W 106 St) - 47 units

720 West End Avenue is a new conversion of a historic Emery Roth building by architect Thomas Jul Hansen.

50 West 66th Street, a new ultra luxury building by Extell, is similar to Central Park Tower and One 57. It has amazing Central Park views.

Park views start at about $20 million. There are also cheaper units without park views in the building.This building is special for the Upper West Side. It is a 70-story tower near Central Park West. However, it will not be ready for people to move in until 2025.A short cab ride across Central Park will take you to Museum Mile on Fifth Avenue. This area gives residents easy access to famous museums and cultural sites.

A lot of these new developments are in the northern reaches of the UWS neighborhood and not in the most prime areas. One can see how few new development units are available for sale in such a large neighborhood.

There are no great buildings currently in the pipeline in all of the UWS.

Upper East Side, Lenox Hill, Yorkville & Carnegie Hill

All of the Upper East Side (including Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, Lenox Hill) has only 493 new developer units available. The following 5 buildings make up 40% of the total units available:

255 E 77th St - 62 units

Treadwell (E 62nd) - 38 units

The Harper (W 86th St) - 37 units

The 74 - 34 units

200 E 75th - 26 units

Perhaps the most interesting of this bunch is 255 E77th Street, as it was also designed by Robert A.M. Stern. As you can see, these are all boutique buildings, so not a lot of units in each. Whenever boutique buildings launch in this neighborhood, they sell out quickly. 

The prime area of UES has many co-ops. This limits the number of new buildings that developers can construct. This is true mostly from Fifth Avenue to Lexington Avenue. New developments are usually in the more Eastern reaches of the neighborhood, from Third Avenue to the East River. 

Pipeline

400 East 84th St - 144 units (conversion)

哈德逊码

35 Hudson Yards - 45 unsold units 

In contrast, 15 Hudson Yards has completely sold out.

In total, there are 400 apartments in the two buildings. Coincidentally (or not), this is also the number of corner offices in Hudson Yards. And, these buildings are truly exceptional ready-made homes for many executives moving to HY and nearby areas. You can use them as corporate apartments, second homes, or primary homes.

Square footage is a critical factor in Hudson Yards property listings, influencing both rental and purchase prices.

The Related Group created Hudson Yards where developers are redeveloping roughly 350 acres around Hudson Yards proper. Many office towers that house some of the most well known companies are ready to open their doors by 2023. We expect prices and rents to rise at 35 HY as these other buildings come online.

35 Hudson Yards is the main building for Related Group’s Hudson Yards Project. This tower is an ultra-luxury building, like those on Billionaire’s Row. The Chairman Steve Roth lives in a penthouse. HBO’s Succession TV show features another penthouse unit in the building.

35 Hudson Yards has lowered its prices from the original plan. This change happened because they entered the market too late.

The building launched after selling most of 15 HY, and then Covid hit. They may have opened the building too early. Many corporate offices in Hudson Yards were not ready until recently.

The initial offer plan price of 35 HY was a blended rate of $4,500 per square foot. Currently, most units are selling for much less, from $2,200 - $3,300 per square foot. This is a great deal given the high-quality materials, excellent design, and overall quality. The interiors have the feeling of being in a Four Seasons Hotel.

翠贝卡

Tribeca has only 85 developer units. 

450 Washington Street - 42 units 

Almost half of the available units are located at 450 Washington Street, a rental to condo conversion project by the Related Group.  Sales which started in 2022, have been brisk. The building is now 75% sold. 

A favorite among financiers, tech-savvy people, and entrepreneurs, Tribeca has become very popular. Artists' lofts have turned into condos, and celebrity-approved buildings have increased the area's appeal. Tribeca, like Park Slope in Brooklyn, provides a lively city life with cultural spots, parks, and nearby services. Residents love the public school district because Stuyvesant High School sits in Tribeca. And the Riverside Park along the Hudson River is very accessible. 

The historic buildings and low-rise zoning rules in the neighborhood limit future development. However, some tall towers have appeared near the World Trade Center at the southern border.

Tribeca has a handful of buildings in the pipeline but nothing substantial (less than 80 units).

西切尔西 

West Chelsea has 215 unsold units from developers. Seventy-four percent of these units are in two beautiful buildings. These buildings are near the Hudson River. They are called Cortland and One High Line.

One High Line - 117 units

Cortland - 42 units

Cortland, which launched sales in the previous year, is another masterpiece by architect Robert A.M. Stern. Stern has created some of the most luxurious buildings in New York City. These include 520 Park, 15 Central Park West, and 220 Central Park South. He also designed Superior Ink and 70 Vestry in the Village and Tribeca.

One High Line reopened in September 2022. It has two twisting limestone towers designed by architect Bjarke Ingels. The towers stand along the Hudson River.

HFZ was the original developer of the building (the XI), but lost the project at auction after completing much of the construction. New developers, Witkoff and Blavatnik, have taken over the project and reduced some prices.

These are two of the most interesting downtown projects right now. Once they sell out, developers will not start new projects in West Chelsea for a long time. Most of the lots have already been built on.

West Chelsea is a mostly low rise luxury neighborhood along the High Line Park. It is home to well-paid workers from companies like KKR, Blackstone, and Morgan Stanley.

West Chelsea's low-rise zoning rules below 28th Street restrict buildings to a maximum of 12 stories and limit the number of units allowed. Both buildings are much taller as they are positioned along the Hudson River. Cortland is 25  stories tall and One High Line has two towers - one at 36 stories and the other at 25 stories. 

While many people dream about living in the West Village, the housing stock makes it prohibitive, as it is mostly a low rise historic district full of townhomes. While this adds to the allure of the West Village, it does little for new development opportunities. West Chelsea is the next best thing. The proximity to the West Village and Hudson Yards is a key factor of the neighborhood’s popularity.

Pipeline

540 W 21st Street - 34 units. 

This is one of the last remaining buildable lots along the Hudson River.  

Turtle Bay, Kips Bay & Murray Hill

Turtle Bay and Kips Bay have 462 unsold units available, with 81% over the following four buildings:

Monogram NYC (E 47th St & Lexington) - 162 units

The Perrie (E 46th St & 2nd Ave) - 95 units

Eastlight (34th & 3rd Ave)- 75 units

Hendrix House (E 25th & 2nd Ave) - 44 units

Turtle Bay is a neighborhood from E 43rd St to E 53rd St from Lexington to the East River (on the east side of Midtown Manhattan). It is home to the many consulates of Missions to the United Nations. Murray Hill is a smaller neighborhood to the south of Turtle Bay. Kips Bay runs further south to 23rd St. 

Pipeline

609 Second Avenue - 68 units

201 East 23rd St - 34 units

中城

Midtown has 650 unsold developer units (down from 748 units in 2022). The top 4 buildings with unsold units are:

Waldorf Astoria  Residences - 370 units

53 W53 - 76 units

Central Park Tower - 69 units

Mandarin Oriental Residences - 47 units

520 Fifth Avenue - 40 units

86% of unsold Midtown Manhattan listings are in the super or ultra luxury segment (i.e. Waldorf, 53W53, Central Park Tower, and Mandarin), with starting prices well over $3,000 per square foot. These buildings are not for mere mortals. 

The Waldorf Astoria redevelopment project makes up more than half of that number. The finishes at the Waldorf are impressive, and the service is sure to be excellent. However, the project keeps delaying its delivery date. This has caused some buyers to lose interest and choose other competing projects.

Upon completion, Waldorf will be truly remarkable. The building is poised to offer some of the most exquisite finishes in Manhattan, NYC. However, there there are many units for sale, so it will take a long time to sell out the building.

Billionaire’s Row on 57th Street, once seen as having too many luxury apartments, has sold many of its units in recent years. Buildings like One57, 432 Park, 520 Park, and 220 Central Park South are mostly sold out. Prices for these ultra-luxury apartments range from $4,500 to $10,000 per square foot.

The new luxury buildings, Central Park Tower, 111 West 57th Street, and 53 W 53rd Street, are performing well. They recently lowered their prices. These impressive developments are attracting buyers. They are impressive developments that attract buyers.

520 Fifth Avenue has been selling exceptionally quickly, but it is in the normal luxury segment (below $3K per square foot) compared to the others.

Pipeline

100 West 37th St - 300 units

 Malabar Residences (127 E 57th St) - 145 units

金融区

FiDi has 934 units over 6 buildings (vs 1,000 units in 2022)

Only 2 Buildings represent 78% of the inventory:

One Wall Street - 456 units (down from 530 units in 2022); and

125 Greenwich - 273 units.

One Wall Street is a gorgeous office to rental conversion. This change will benefit the neighborhood by bringing in Whole Foods, Lifetime Fitness, and the French department store Printemps.

One Wall Street offers great building amenities. These include gyms, pools, doormen, laundry rooms, and outdoor spaces. These features make living in the Financial District more convenient and appealing.

125 Greenwich is one of my favorites in the Financial District. The building was designed by the late architect Rafael Vinoly, known for the luxury 432 Park Avenue. It has attractive architecture and finishes.

The building was designed by the late architect Rafael Vinoly, who is famous for 432 Park Avenue. It features stunning architecture and finishes.

After several years, the project is back on the market. The developer could not pay their loan, so the building was sold at auction.

We have seen many traditional Wall Street Companies move to Hudson Yards to Class A office towers as the World Trade Center filled up. Many Wall Street offices are becoming less attractive. We expect that more of them will be turned into homes in the future.

Pipeline

One Park Row - 64 units

Conclusion:

With fewer new developments in key Manhattan areas, buyers should think about making a move sooner rather than waiting. With supply constraints poised to push prices upward and with interest rates now dropping, we feel now is the time to explore opportunities in Manhattan's real estate market. 

We obtained our stats from Marketproof, which experts deem reliable.